Polymarket's 36% Ceasefire Probability Is a Macro Signal, Not a Trading Tip
The consensus is wrong because it ignores what this number actually represent...
Layer2
•
CryptoCred
•
2026-07-18
Market Prices
| Coin | Price | 24h |
|---|---|---|
|
BTC
Bitcoin
|
$63,961.1 | +1.61% |
|
ETH
Ethereum
|
$1,844.39 | +0.72% |
|
SOL
Solana
|
$74.71 | +0.08% |
|
BNB
BNB Chain
|
$568 | +0.62% |
|
XRP
XRP Ledger
|
$1.08 | -0.11% |
|
DOGE
Dogecoin
|
$0.0720 | +0.63% |
|
ADA
Cardano
|
$0.1652 | +3.06% |
|
AVAX
Avalanche
|
$6.53 | +0.85% |
|
DOT
Polkadot
|
$0.8376 | -1.70% |
|
LINK
Chainlink
|
$8.21 | +0.07% |
Fear & Greed
25
Extreme Fear
Market Sentiment
Event Calendar
202608
04
upgrade
Solana Firedancer
Independent validator client goes live on mainnet
15
04
halving
Bitcoin Halving
Block reward reduced to 3.125 BTC
18
03
unlock
Sui Token Unlock
Team and early investor shares released
28
03
unlock
Arbitrum Token Unlock
92 million ARB released
30
04
upgrade
Celestia Mainnet Upgrade
Improves data availability sampling efficiency
10
05
upgrade
Ethereum Pectra Upgrade
Raises validator limit and account abstraction
22
03
unlock
Optimism Unlock
Circulating supply increases by about 2%
12
05
halving
BCH Halving
Block reward halving event
Altseason Index
44
Bitcoin Season
BTC Dominance
Altseason
Gas Tracker
Ethereum
28 Gwei
BNB Chain
3 Gwei
Polygon
42 Gwei
Arbitrum
0.5 Gwei
Optimism
0.3 Gwei
Tag Hub
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All →
1
Bitcoin
BTC
$63,961.1
1
Ethereum
ETH
$1,844.39
1
Solana
SOL
$74.71
1
BNB Chain
BNB
$568
1
XRP Ledger
XRP
$1.08
1
Dogecoin
DOGE
$0.0720
1
Cardano
ADA
$0.1652
1
Avalanche
AVAX
$6.53
1
Polkadot
DOT
$0.8376
1
Chainlink
LINK
$8.21
🐋 Whale Tracker
🟢
0x6161...3912
12h ago
In
2,815.58 BTC
🔵
0x751f...cb4d
1h ago
Stake
41,814 SOL
🟢
0xe129...7c65
3h ago
In
28,200 SOL
💡 Smart Money
0xafe7...4f1d
Early Investor
-$3.5M
84%
0x5f9f...d275
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+$3.2M
95%
0x6854...95ba
Institutional Custody
+$3.5M
60%
#Polymarket
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